How the Market Map works

Principles

1. 01

   Every country, same treatment

   All countries and territories go through the same sources, the same checks and the same card layout. No country gets a separate path because NGE covers it more often.

2. 02

   Official sources first

   Core figures come from international bodies that publish comparable data for nearly every country: the IMF and the World Bank. Specialist sources add layers they are best placed to measure, such as electricity, shipping or elections.

3. 03

   A number, a source, a date

   Each value is stored as a number together with the organisation that published it, a link to the original series, the period it describes and when we collected it. The card shows all of these.

4. 04

   Forecasts are labelled as forecasts

   IMF projections are kept separate from reported figures. Anything for the current year or later is shown as an IMF forecast, never as an outcome.

5. 05

   Stale data is marked, not hidden

   Each indicator has an expected update rhythm. If the latest value is more than twice that rhythm old, it is marked as dated on screen.

6. 06

   No silent gap-filling

   We do not invent, interpolate or average missing values. A missing figure is shown as not published.

7. 07

   Rules, not guesswork

   Verdicts, map colourings and what-if scenarios are produced by fixed, published rules applied to the stored figures, identically for every country. The rules are listed below as they go live.

8. 08

   Estimates, not forecasts

   What-if scenarios show which economies are more or less exposed to a shock, based on their trade, debt and energy figures. They are estimates of exposure, not predictions of what will happen.

9. 09

   News mood is attention, not fact

   Sentiment measures how much global news coverage a country is getting and its overall tone. It describes coverage, not conditions on the ground.

Indicators

Rules

Latest value

The most recent reported (non-forecast) period from the named source. Where two sources report the same figure, the card names the one shown.

Dated marker

Shown when the latest period is older than twice the indicator's expected update rhythm.

Too old to compare

A value from more than seven years before the current year stays on the country card, marked dated, but is left out of map colours, rankings, the stress score, verdicts and scenarios, so old figures are never compared with current ones.

Tourism

Tourism receipts as % of exports. Because 2020 and 2021 were pandemic collapses, the tourism scenario uses 2019, the last normal year, where it is published.

Forecast

IMF World Economic Outlook values for the current year and later, labelled 'IMF forecast'.

Map colouring

Each country is placed by its rank among all countries that publish the figure. Where higher or lower is clearly better, the map shades stronger to weaker; where it is not (for example income or remittances), it shades lighter to darker without judging. Grey means not published.

Growth and inflation lenses

Use the IMF forecast for the current year where one exists, otherwise the latest reported year.

Real interest rate

Central bank policy rate (BIS, latest month) minus inflation for the current year. Euro area members share the European Central Bank rate. Shown only where BIS publishes a rate.

Currency, 30 days

Change in the dollar exchange rate between the oldest stored day at least 20 days back (up to 31 days) and the latest day. Positive means the currency strengthened. Blank until 20 days of history exist.

Stress score

For each of seven pressure points (inflation, government debt, budget balance, current account, reserves cover, external debt repayments, country risk premium) we take the share of countries in a better position. The score is the average of those shares, from 0 (calm) to 100 (strained). Needs at least four of the seven; otherwise no score is shown.

Verdict

One line from the stress score band (70+ heavy strain, 55-69 some strain, 35-54 broadly balanced, under 35 solid footing) plus growth. Signals list any figure in the top or bottom fifth of at least 20 countries, an election within six months, news attention up 50% or more, or a currency move of 5% or more in 30 days.

What-if scenarios

First-round effect as % of GDP from published trade and debt shares, using the formula shown beside each scenario. Imports of goods and services are trade share minus exports. They show exposure, not a forecast, and ignore policy responses and knock-on effects.

Electricity demand

Ember monthly demand: the latest three months against the same three months a year earlier.

News attention and mood

Counted from GDELT 15-minute event files by the country where events happen. Attention compares the last 7 days with the average week of the previous four; it needs at least five events in that baseline. Mood is the average tone of those events. Both describe coverage, not conditions.

Lookalikes

The three countries closest on growth, inflation, government debt, reserves, income per person and risk premium, measured by rank position; at least four of the six must be shared.

IMF Debt Tracker

Current lending arrangements from the IMF's list of arrangements as of the last day of the previous month, with agreed, undrawn and outstanding amounts in SDR as published.

China Export Share Tracker

Share of a country's goods exports sold to China, from IMF partner-country trade data. China is shown on its own because it is the largest single buyer for many economies and its figures are published on the same basis for every country. A high share describes a trade link, not a weakness.

Food Insecurity Tracker

FEWS NET's highest area-level food insecurity phase in the country (IPC scale: 1 Minimal, 2 Stressed, 3 Crisis, 4 Emergency, 5 Famine), current situation. Countries FEWS NET does not monitor are shown as not assessed, not as safe.

Climate

ND-GAIN index (resilience, 0-100), vulnerability (0-1) and readiness (0-1) from the University of Notre Dame, latest year published.

Shipping

IMF PortWatch satellite-tracked port calls and estimated cargo volume, summed over the latest 28 days of data and compared with the same 28 days a year earlier. Both measures need at least 20 port calls in the earlier period, so very small ports do not produce misleading swings. Large moves can reflect conflict, sanctions or route changes.

Trade partners

IMF goods trade by partner for the latest year with a reported world total. Shares are of total goods exports or imports; the top five partners are shown. EU share sums the 27 member states.

Credit rating

Moody's-equivalent local-currency rating as compiled by Damodaran (NYU Stern), shown on a 21-step scale where Aaa is the top. Country risk premium is the extra return investors demand over a top-rated (Aaa) government, so top-rated countries show no extra premium.